“Why is Project Diva f in Trouble?” – My Observations and Opinions
I should start off by saying that this entire story will be a rant on the release and sales of Project Diva f, and what I expect in the future. These will be based on solid numbers and facts. I will also have theories based on what I have observed in the past between Sony and SEGA.
Cutting to the chase, we’ve already had the last week’s numbers come in for Project Diva f sales, and it SEEMED positive. But SEGA is still worried, and now there’s the possibility that there wont even be a sequel. Why?
The first major problem comes down to the Vita itself. There are around 2.5 million Vita owners around the world, and roughly half of them are in Japan. Compare this to the PSP, which has sold over 84 million units, and you have a much smaller audience to market your game. For a game developer, hoping that just 10% of console owners will buy your game is optimistic at best. This means that PjD f would be extremely lucky to break 250,000 units.
I can already hear your thoughts. “But the game sold 160,000 copies in its first week! It’s doing really well!”. While this is true, it’s actually the biggest concern of all. With any major or overly hyped game release, around 80% of a game’s total sales will happen within its first week on the market. With this in mind, I can foresee PjD f reaching a total of 200,000 units in sales. This is far below the previous titles average of 333,000 units per game (the Project Diva franchise had broken 1 million total sales across the previous three games).
Another problem is PjD f’s higher development costs. It cost far more to make than the previous project diva games, and it’s not likely to sell anywhere near as many copies due to the limited number of Vita owners. This means a lower return on investment, and less money to work on a sequel. And I’m sorry to say, but opening up international sales would be completely out of the question. The low global unit count is the exact reason why it wont happen. Not in physical format anyway. The cost of packaging, shipping, and marketing for the game would be too high for the limited sales to make up for it. I could see how this may have been possible for Project Diva Extend. But not for PjD f.
But… Why? Why would SEGA develop such an expensive game for a console that’s selling so badly, and has so few owners? Surely as an experienced game development company, they would be smart enough to avoid that market and continue developing for the PSP until Sony can fix the Vita’s sale issues. But they didn’t. And I think I may know why.
THE FOLLOWING IS COMPLETELY MY OWN THEORY BASED ON PAST OBSERVATIONS
It is my belief that SEGA knew that the Vita was an unstable platform, and they wished to continue development on the PSP. But Sony stepped in and told them flat out “NO”. Sony wanted SEGA to develop the game for the Vita instead to help market the device. After all, at least in Japan, Miku’s name seems to help with the sales of ANY kind of merchandise, such as MP3 players. They had even worked out a marketing deal to debut a new white version of the PS Vita in a limited edition package. While this plan worked somewhat, it still backfired due to the Vita’s high pricing, and the high price of essential accessories, such as memory cards.
This would not be the first time that SEGA was forced by the hand of Sony. Back in the days after the death of the Dreamcast, SEGA had moved to being a software-only company. They had started work on a new title that we know as Sonic Heroes. The game was originally meant to be for the GameCube and Xbox. But Sony stepped in and forced SEGA to release the game on the PS2 as well, or they’d risk never developing for a Sony console again. The PS2 was the biggest console on the market, so this would have been a death sentence for SEGA. They had no choice but to listen to Sony and recode the game to work on the PS2 as well, which resulted in a lower quality product [SOURCE]. With this mindset, I am sure that SEGA knew the fanbase wanted another game, and wanted to develop it for the PSP. But Sony didn’t allow it.
END OF THEORY
In the end, it was just too soon for SEGA to make the jump to Vita with PjD f, and Sony is mostly to blame for their inability to sell enough consoles. Their high console price and high price of accessories is what’s preventing many people from being able to buy the game at all. Perhaps in the future when they fix this problem, sales on PjD f will pick up again. Until then, we can only pray for the future of the Project Diva franchise.
Sony = Bag of Dicks
I Really Wish for PJD-ƒ’s sale to be better. Haven’t actually Heard of PS Vita until i heard of PJD-ƒ.
That doesn’t sound too good for Project Diva f.
Is it possible that when Pjd team tweeted about their concern, what they actually mean is they wont be able to make a launch on this scale again? Because well, Pjdf launch is pretty massive, unlike previous Pjd.
Plus, do you think Pjd team can break even? At the very least, to warrant another sequel?
Now buying a Miku Vita bundle seems a good thing to do. Don’t get me wrong, I still dislike Sony as a corp, but I cant let my beloved Miku and Pjd to be in this state. Gotta help!
I wish that Project Diva F for PS3 doesn’t need a PSVita to go .-.
@Lucia: Sadly… It might. This means that the PS3 version could also be adversely affected by this. Domino effect.
@Jhrarbort it is still not defined. Maybe it will be a 100% stand-alone game, probably even with classic songs and modules included. But then, if they say, that it won’t need Vita, now, this will totally kill sales. So they are waiting patiently.
Perhaps the project diva franchise can be helped out of the hole the the vita’s f has dug by recreating the older project divas to have all the text translated to English, Spanish, or any other language that there are fans speaking.
I disagree, Vita is a new console so of course there still haven’t that many buyers compared to Standard PSP. You can’t compare the total sales of old console with the new console, that’s just ludicrous. I’m still confident that in the future where there will be more great games for Vita, the sales number will catch up soon. The key point is how SONY can convince widely known game developers that Vita is the best mobile console, and make them release popular titles in Vita. Trust me, for gamers,the console price is not an issue at all.
@Cosmoman: The original PSP sold far more units in its first year on the market. And this was 8 years ago. It even continues to sell more units per week than the Vita. Pricing is one main issue, feature inconvenience is another issue with the device. Recent changes in updates such as memory card locking [LINK] is another thing that will deter many customers.
Now I can only speak to the U.S., but I suspect another part of the problem is that gaming attitudes are shifting. 1) Mobile Gaming is starting to outstrip console type gaming (Source: https://www.npd.com/wps/portal/npd/us/news/pressreleases/pr_120905 ) 2) PC Gaming is also starting to outstrip console gaming (Source: http://www.shacknews.com/article/72754/pc-gaming-on-the-rise-says-report ) Now why is this happening? My own theory on both PC and Mobile gaming outstripping console games is that 1) Smartphones/tablets are expensive and also damned convenient. If your mobile product can provide so much and have cheap games, why spend the money on a console? 2) PC Gaming is taking advantage of hardware that far outpaces anything else on the market, and is on the bleeding edge of technology. Oculus Rift is one example of how PC gaming is evolving and keeping the PC ahead of the curve. This just leaves expensive consoles such as the PS3 and Vita in the dust. Why pay so much for something that really only does one thing well? It doesn’t make sense, and gamer’s are responding to that with their wallets. What I would like to see? Personally I would love to see some PC games of Miku, heck release it on Steam which has proven to be a great distribution platform! Also more Miku mobile! Seeing some good high profile games on iOS and Android would do nicely. I remember when console gamer’s were all talking about how their consoles were going to defeat everybody and other platforms were going to die. The opposite is instead happening, and embracing the growth areas to maximize sales rather than living in the past would do Miku a world of good in my opinion. Of course… maybe I’m wrong, wouldn’t be the first time. Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to go daydream about Miku on the Oculus Rift VR system.
@Pontianak: The mobile device segment such as smart phones and tablets is also definitely effecting sales of the Vita. You are correct. People can’t justify paying that much for a Vita just for the games, because of the fact their shiny Android or iOS phone is capable of doing all the other things that the Vita promises (And as a side note, the camera on the Vita is just AWFUL).
The only reason I’m even contemplating getting a Vita is because of this game, and that there’s a Miku version of the Vita.
I know I know.. what I mean is, SONY must convince well known Game developers to release a GREAT Game /Popular Titles EXCLUSIVELY for Vita. If they can somehow manage to do this, Vita sales will be boosted in no time! As for Vita’s weakness point, I agree that they should make improvements and released a better version of Vita, this is also important to convince game developers that Vita is indeed flawless.
I still don’t understand why PJD hasn’t ever been released for PS3 alone! If I read correctly they had announced that after PjD F this year, they would be releasing a PS3 version next summer I’m hoping it’s true since I don’t have the handhelds and despite the desire to get one just to play PjD, the money just isn’t there. There are a TON of PS3 owners. I can understand wanting to boost Vita and PSP sales, but after a while shouldn’t they be tapping the rest of the market? It shouldn’t take a big software change to go from PSP and Vita to PS3, especially since they are piggybacking the platform anyway.
1 word F*ck
I wonder if development and release of a custom firmware for PS Vita, which allows all of the PSP games, with a PS1/PS2 emulator will help the Vita sales.
Huh? What? Are you saying that you cannot use Vita to play old PSP games?
@Cosmoman: You can, but it’s only supported on Japan’s PSN. They have a UMD port option which allows you to transfer your purchase of a UMD based PSP game to the Vita (but I also believe there is a small fee per game to do this). They also have a wide selection of PSP games available on the PSN for both Japan and the U.S., and are fully compatible with the Vita.
@D D it surely will. F.e. in Russia, sales of PSP was miserable… Until jailbreak was made. After that, sales gone up extremely fast, and now it is most popular handheld there after iPhone/iPod touch.
Downside is, game development will be disadvantageous, since a lot of people won’t buy games, and will download ISOs instead. F.e., I have downloaded all three PjDs for PSP from torrents so far (extend- after a hour of its release, lol. It was cracked that fast) and all DLCs. Just because of money.
Oh, this is really bad….I definitely will buy a VITA as well as the game once I am able to (I’m saving for it). I know it won’t be enough though…
This is extremely saddening….
@AKITA. That’s what I’m talking about, a great game can greatly change a console’s fate! It’s up to SONY to make sure great games are released on Vita, and much preferably EXCLUSIVE for Vita.
And the sale of both Vita and Pjdf fell in the 2nd week. Disheartening. And considering SEGA is bleeding money, I really hope that they can still hang on to the franchise. Please.
prays for SEGA >.<!
still trying to find a way to download from PSN japan but i have about nill experience of using wifi cuz I have only recently picked up the psp for the past year and the psp 3k was bought from eBay soooo….
yeah I'm hoping to pick up and spend more time with my VITA (if i ever get it…)
i alreay have like 3-5 stuff preordered on Ami and im saving and hoping i can save to 300-400 for them…..gulp* my wallet…OTL
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